The Real Election Battle: Social Media vs. Big Data

As the United States heads into the last full month before its November presidential election, campaign rhetoric is on the rise. 

And apparently, so are campaign bank accounts, thanks to some crafty fundraising on both sides.

We’re not sure who will win the 2012 presidential election. What we are sure of is this:

It may very well come down to an epic battle between Big Data and Social Media.

Back in 2008, presidential hopeful Barack Obama surprised the United States – and the world – by beating out Hillary Clinton to win the nomination for the Democratic party.

It was a big blow to the Clinton camp and the “old” democrats.

But Obama continued his unlikely march to greatness into the Autumn of 2008 and (against all odds in many people’s mind), defeated his Republican rival...

...and was elected as the 44th president of the United States of America.

Love him or hate him (is there any in between?), you have to admit: it was an impressive political feat.

So how did Obama do it?

Was it his sonorous baritone speaking voice? His message of Hope and Change? His youth and vigor?

Those were all factors. 

But, according to most analysts, the real secret to Obama’s success was...

Obama’s Lean, Mean, Social Media Machine

After President Obama won the 2008 election, analysts zeroed in on how his campaign team used social media like Facebook and Twitter to rally grass-roots support.

Obama’s biggest asset in the whole process was Chris Hughes. The 24 year-old co-founder of Facebook left that company to become the architect behind Obama’s social media efforts.

Obama’s young commandos utilized Facebook and other social sites to funnel potential voters into their “One Million Strong for Barack” campaign.

Hughes then developed mybarackobama.com to become the virtual hub for all its communications. 

It connected Obama supporters to each other for camaraderie.  Then a matching iPhone application helped activate groups on the go.

The results were astonishing.

Not only did Obama quickly mobilize a grass-roots following of eager evangelists, he also raised a lot of money.

And the bulk of his fundraising came through social media connections (87% according to their campaign filings).

In his 21-month campaign for the 2008 presidential bid, Obama raised more than a half-billion dollars from 6.5 million online contributions that averaged around $80 each.

That trend has continued for the 2012 election cycle and it appears that Obama’s social media fundraising machine will top the one billion dollar mark before it’s all over.

Through the end of August, Obama had raised $439.5 million in 2012 alone.

Romney’s Big Data Approach to Fundraising

While Obama relies on small contributions spread over a large group, Mitt Romney has relied on larger contributions from a much smaller pool of donors.

The Associated Press reported last month that Romney has been utilizing a “secretive data-mining project that sifts through Americans' personal information — including their purchasing history and church attendance — to identify new and likely, wealthy donors.”

The strategy has paid off, too.

At the beginning of the summer, Romney trailed Obama’s fundraising efforts by $160 million.

Mining “Big Data” allowed the Republican candidate to close the gap by $40 million over the summer.

Still trailing the current president by over $120 million dollars, the former Massachusetts governor is hoping the short list of big donors will continue to pay off as the election cycle heats up in October.

The Texas Connection

Since June, Romney has employed a little-known (but highly successful) analytics firm out of Fort Worth, Texas called Buxton Co.

The firm uses sophisticated analysis of personal records including details about credit accounts, families and children, voter registrations, charitable contributions, property tax records and survey responses.

Its powerful computer software then combines marketing data with this “psychographic” information about Americans.  

The result allows precise pinpointing of likely donors.

CEO Tom Buxton says, "I can look at data of any kind and say, 'I want to know who that $100 donor could be.'" 

But his efforts for Romney’s campaign have been even more lucrative than that.

After analyzing details of more than 2 million households near San Francisco, Buxton was able to identify thousands of people who would be comfortably able (and inclined) to give Romney at least $2,500 or more.

So far, the average overall donation from those on Romney’s smaller donor list is around $400.

Buxton said he's working for the Romney campaign because he wants "to be on the winning team."

Which Method Will Win?

At the Elevation Group, we don’t know who will win in November.

But we are interested in the outcome of this election from a marketing perspective.

Obama’s approach is more in tune with the new, modern entrepreneurial style. It relies on connecting people with similar views and values ... and that networking creates a powerful force.

The key for Obama will be whether the individuals reached through Social Media will actually show up at the polls. 

Romney’s strategy is much more in line with marketing campaigns used by large Fortune 500 companies.

For Romney, the key will be whether he can use the money he raises from wealthy donors to appeal to the “middle.” 

Those are the swing voters that popular presidents like Reagan and Clinton were able to win over. They did it by empathizing with their problems and connecting to their needs.

Whoever wins in November is going to have a monumental task ahead.

Although social issues may fire up a lot of folks, there’s one pesky issue that will continue to hound whoever’s sworn into office next January. 

As Clinton’s 1992 campaign manager so famously said,

“It’s the Economy, Stupid”

That’s because the same economic problems we face today will still be here in 2013.

Problems that affect everyone. Like...

Soaring food costs. Escalating health care premiums. Higher taxes. Rampant unemployment. Shrinking retirement funds. 

And we expect the economy to get worse before it gets better. Much worse. 

Which will mean social unrest and unprecedented suffering.

That’s why we’re not waiting until the election is over to see what happens. We’re preparing for the worst today.

The time for action is now.

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They are the same strategies successful millionaires are using right now to protect and grow their hard-earned money for the uncertain times ahead.

These strategies hedge against future wealth-robbing inflation ... or devastating deflation...

And still offer plenty of room for solid growth.

If you haven’t seen the new website yet, or just need a little extra inspiration to get your financial house in order before the November election...

Hop back into your member’s area and starting preparing for your future financial prosperity today.

Your Partner in Prosperity

The EVG Research Team